Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 37.783622 44.690730 52.259724 61.137574 71.231591 82.317239 95.377587
2024-12-29 28.069020 37.351978 48.504008 62.745954 80.295032 101.049060 127.271512
2025-01-05 21.627731 31.629859 44.546124 62.145196 85.159062 113.863711 151.955398
2025-01-12 18.908287 29.835563 44.777692 66.182862 95.460022 133.444833 185.683258
2025-01-19 14.591831 24.942559 39.962473 62.601982 94.984215 138.650230 200.805036
2025-01-26 12.810074 23.389461 39.500477 64.789290 102.250436 154.290663 230.332517
2025-02-02 11.889267 22.985304 40.596645 69.201445 112.826263 174.927503 267.624283
2025-02-09 10.607253 21.749300 40.193769 71.195771 119.858253 190.807038 298.921453
2025-02-16 9.367045 20.364190 39.338276 72.307210 125.503661 204.839281 328.102553
2025-02-23 8.137762 18.781289 37.928730 72.315908 129.323958 216.237161 353.824681
2025-03-02 6.870268 16.895364 35.738543 70.754663 130.433239 223.466151 373.531485
2025-03-09 6.001996 15.652816 34.533870 70.715990 133.918338 234.397037 399.155487
2025-03-16 4.568610 13.021368 30.575744 65.765807 129.461026 233.604235 408.391436
2025-03-23 4.037631 12.315998 30.297410 67.563549 136.787105 252.279970 449.363681
2025-03-30 3.374611 11.126186 28.838680 66.931073 139.730746 263.887915 479.589594
2025-04-06 3.191097 11.113294 29.864085 71.224044 151.805626 291.276928 536.499678
2025-04-13 2.476832 9.469892 27.028998 67.417317 148.621975 292.570298 550.581101
2025-04-20 2.247184 9.147338 27.162333 69.742863 157.103074 314.335526 599.603898
2025-04-27 2.167300 9.263795 28.356745 74.431417 170.415701 345.154437 665.080013
2025-05-04 1.962553 8.925434 28.379079 76.549659 178.806876 367.587766 717.075327
2025-05-11 1.739651 8.459634 28.004171 77.729892 185.380395 387.018341 764.596820
2025-05-18 1.499554 7.853422 27.160933 77.739128 189.551584 402.224371 805.289646
2025-05-25 1.237552 7.064861 25.681575 76.081196 190.130055 410.772057 834.517224